Skip Navigation Links
|
The Sunspot Cycle
(Updated 2017/03/15)
Please note: Dr. David Hathaway, a member of the MSFC solar physics
group for 29 years, transferred to NASA's Ames Research Center in
California, and retired in December 2016. Dr. Hathaway is creating his own website, which will host sunspot cycle data and predictions. This link will take you
away from this NASA site to Dr. Hathaway's new pages.
|
Click on image for larger version.
|
|
In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo
Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations of
Sunspots.
Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849 and earlier
observations have been used to extend the records back to 1610. The sunspot
number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of
individual sunspots.
|
The "sunspot number" is then given by the sum of the number
of individual sunspots and ten times the number of groups. Since most sunspot groups have,
on average, about ten spots, this formula for counting sunspots gives reliable numbers
even when the observing conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see.
Monthly averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers (181 kb JPEG image), (307 kb pdf-file), (62 kb text file) show that the number of sunspots
visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.
(Note: there are actually at least two "official" sunspot
numbers reported. The International Sunspot Number as compiled by the
Solar Influences Data Analysis Center
in Belgium, has been revised recently (V2.0 -- summer 2015), and should now more closely match the NOAA sunspot number. The NOAA
sunspot number is compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The numbers tabulated in
SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt are the monthly averages of the daily sunspot number with error estimates as posted at the WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.)
Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of
inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about
1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the
observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed
during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar
inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age"
when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower
altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the
more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an
area of on-going research.
|
|
|
Click on image for larger version.
|
|
Detailed observations of sunspots have been obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory
since 1874. These observations include information on the sizes and positions of sunspots
as well as their numbers. These data show that sunspots do not appear at random over the
surface of the sun but are concentrated in two latitude bands on either side of the
equator. A butterfly diagram (142 kb GIF image) (184 kb pdf-file) (updated monthly) showing the positions
of the spots for each rotation of the sun since May 1874 shows that these bands first form
at mid-latitudes, widen, and then move toward the equator as each cycle progresses.
|
The Greenwich Sunspot Data
The Royal Greenwich Observatory data has been appended with data obtained by the US Air
Force Solar Optical Observing Network since 1977. This newer data has been reformatted to
conform to the older Greenwich data and both are available in a
local directory of ASCII files. Each file contains records for a given year with
individual records providing information on the daily observations of active regions.
|
Sunspot Cycle Predictions
|
|
Click on image for larger version. |
|
MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann have studied the
sunspot record for characteristic behavior that might help in predicting future sunspot
activity. Our current predictions of solar activity for the next few years can be found at
this link. Although sunspots themselves produce only minor
effects on solar emissions, the magnetic activity that accompanies the sunspots can
produce dramatic changes in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray emission levels. These changes
over the solar cycle have important consequences for the Earth's upper atmosphere.
|
|